Flamengo – Atletico-MG: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Serie A · Brazil · Matchday 32

FlamengoSerie A · #1

3-2Tuesday, October 27

Atletico-MGSerie A · #7

Match events

FlamengoAtletico-MG

7'⚽Bernard Anício Caldeira DuarteAssist: Angelo Preciado
34'⚽Gonzalo PlataAssist: Guillermo Varela
41'⚽Giorgian de ArrascaetaAssist: Samuel Lino
45'⇄Ayrton LucasOff: Alex Sandro
59'⚽Renan LodiAssist: Victor Hugo Gomes Silva
63'⇄Kevin CastañoOff: Maycon de Andrade Barberan

Chances to win

Flamengo%75

Draw%17

Atletico-MG%8

At a glance

Over 1.5

%60Over 2.5

%46Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Flamengo win.

%75Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 8.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Over 2.5%60

Not both score%54

Both score%46

Under 2.5%40

Draw%17

Atletico-MG win%8

Why?

Flamengo won 7 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

FlamengoD0-0W3-0D0-0W1-0D2-2

Atletico-MGL0-2W1-0W3-0W2-1D2-2

Last 15 meetings

9Flamengo won

2Draw

4Atletico-MG won

2.3
Goals per game6/15
Over 2.55/15
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Flamengo · last 10 at home3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 5 of the 5 games it led at half-time.

Atletico-MG · last 10 away0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/10games led at half-time.Won 0 of the 1 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Flamengo · last 10 at home6.7 corners, 1.7 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners8/10Over 4.5 corners7/10Over 5.5 corners

Atletico-MG · last 10 away3.1 corners, 1.8 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners4/10Over 4.5 corners2/10Over 5.5 corners0/10Over 0.5 cards8/10Over 1.5 cards6/10

Bench

Andrew, Dyogo, Ayrton Lucas, Emerson Royal, Vitão, João Victor Cunha, Lucas Paquetá, J. Carrascal, N. de la Cruz, Luiz Araújo, Bruno Henrique, J. Freitas

Atletico-MG · 4-2-3-1

1Gabriel Delfim

2Natanael

6Renan Lodi

13Lyanco

40Vitão

8Maycon

11Bernard

21A. Franco

23A. Preciado

30Victor Hugo

17Igor Gomes

Bench

Robert, Léo Duarte, Vitor Hugo, K. Pascini, Alexsander, Gustavo Scarpa, K. Castaño, Reinier, T. Pérez, Mamady Cisse, A. Minda, Dudu

Flamengo – Atletico-MGJuly 28, 2025 · Serie A1-0

Flamengo – Atletico-MGNovember 14, 2024 · Serie A0-0

Atletico-MG – FlamengoNovember 10, 2024 · Copa Do Brasil0-1

Flamengo – Atletico-MGNovember 3, 2024 · Copa Do Brasil3-1

Atletico-MG – FlamengoJuly 4, 2024 · Serie A2-4

Flamengo – Atletico-MGNovember 30, 2023 · Serie A0-3

Atletico-MG – FlamengoJuly 30, 2023 · Serie A1-2

Flamengo – Atletico-MGOctober 16, 2022 · Serie A1-0

Flamengo – Atletico-MGJuly 14, 2022 · Copa Do Brasil2-0

Atletico-MG – FlamengoJune 23, 2022 · Copa Do Brasil2-1

Atletico-MG – FlamengoJune 19, 2022 · Serie A2-0

63'⇄Reinier Jesus CarvalhoOff: Igor Gomes

63'⇄Alan MindaOff: Angelo Preciado

69'⇄Jorge CarrascalOff: Gonzalo Plata

69'⇄Bruno HenriqueOff: Pedro

75'⇄Joaquín FreitasOff: Giorgian de Arrascaeta

75'⇄Lucas PaquetáOff: Jorginho

90+1'⇄Vitor Hugo Franchescoli de SouzaOff: Victor Hugo Gomes Silva

90+1'⇄Alexsander Cristhian Gomes da CostaOff: Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte

90+8'Vitor Hugo Franchescoli de Souza

90+9'⚽Jorge CarrascalPenalty

Statistics

72%Possession28%

2.91Expected goals1.01

29Total shots5

9Shots on target4

14Corners0

9Fouls15

0Offsides3

2Yellow cards1

0Red cards0

2Saves6

Flamengo scored 1.6 and conceded 0.5 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Atletico-MG scored 0.9 and conceded 1.2 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Flamengo · last 10 at home: 7 wins7/10

Flamengo: 10 games · Atletico-MG: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.8Goals scored (avg)0.9

0.6Goals conceded (avg)1.4

2.4Total goals per gameleague 2.72.3

9/10Over 0.5league %959/10

8/10Over 1.5league %787/10

5/10Over 2.5league %513/10

1/10Over 3.5league %253/10

1/10Over 4.5league %131/10

5/10Both scoreleague %594/10

5/10Clean sheets3/10

1/10Failed to score4/10

Flamengo: 10 games · Atletico-MG: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.8Goals scored (avg)1.6

0.8Goals conceded (avg)1.2

2.6Total goals per gameleague 2.72.8

8/10Over 0.5league %9510/10

7/10Over 1.5league %787/10

6/10Over 2.5league %515/10

3/10Over 3.5league %253/10

2/10Over 4.5league %132/10

6/10Both scoreleague %595/10

4/10Clean sheets3/10

2/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

90+9'

Jorge Carrascal decided it in minute 90.

%76 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Flamengo win 761, 138 end level and Atletico-MG win 101. The actual result comes up 761 times in 1000.

2.91 – 1.01 The score the chances deserved (xG): Flamengo 2.91 – 1.01 Atletico-MG.

29 – 5 Shots: Flamengo 29 – 5 Atletico-MG.

5 more numbers for this match in Premium

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 15 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Flamengo · Serie A

Atletico-MG · Serie A

Flamengo · All games

Atletico-MG · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Flamengo's ground

Last 15 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match