FBC Melgar – Comerciantes Unidos: probabilities, statistics and live score

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FBC MelgarPrimera Division: Tabla Anual · #3

1-1Friday, October 30

Comerciantes UnidosPrimera Division: Tabla Anual · #13

Match events

FBC MelgarComerciantes Unidos

4'Horacio Orzan
4'VARHoracio OrzanCard upgrade confirmed
9'⚽Johnny VidalesAssist: Cristian Bordacahar
20'Matías Cordova
28'Miguel Rondelli
29'⇄Jhon SánchezOff: Piero Guzmán

Chances to win

FBC Melgar%70

Draw%19

Comerciantes Unidos%12

At a glance

Over 1.5

%59Over 2.5

%50Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is FBC Melgar win.

%70Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 7.Missed

Other scenarios

Over 2.5%59

Not both score%50

Both score%50

Under 2.5%41

Draw%19

Comerciantes Unidos win%12

Why?

FBC Melgar won 6 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

FBC MelgarW2-1W4-2D2-2D1-1W1-0

Comerciantes UnidosW3-1L2-4D1-1L1-2L0-1

Last 11 meetings

3FBC Melgar won

7Draw

1Comerciantes Unidos won

2.5
Goals per game4/11
Over 2.58/11
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

FBC Melgar · last 10 at home5/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Comerciantes Unidos · last 10 away1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/10games led at half-time.Won 0 of the 1 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

FBC Melgar · last 6 at home7.3 corners, 1.8 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/6Over 4.5 corners5/6Over 5.5 corners4/6Over 0.5 cards5/6Over 1.5 cards

Comerciantes Unidos · last 7 away3.9 corners, 1.6 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners3/7Over 4.5 corners3/7Over 5.5 corners2/7Over 0.5 cards5/7Over 1.5 cards4/7

25Rodrigo Gary Vilca Betetta

Bench

José Pablo Alejandro Charún Valdez, A. Cossio, M. Carpio, Thiago Salinas, O. Pinto, W. Ayoví, M. Pérez, J. Sánchez, J. Olivares

Comerciantes Unidos – FBC MelgarMarch 2, 2024 · Primera División0-0

FBC Melgar – Comerciantes UnidosNovember 2, 2018 · Primera División2-1

Comerciantes Unidos – FBC MelgarAugust 5, 2018 · Primera División2-2

Comerciantes Unidos – FBC MelgarNovember 20, 2017 · Primera División1-1

FBC Melgar – Comerciantes UnidosJuly 26, 2017 · Primera División1-1

FBC Melgar – Comerciantes UnidosJuly 20, 2016 · Primera División3-2

Comerciantes Unidos – FBC MelgarApril 1, 2016 · Primera División2-0

Thiago Alessandro Salinas MelgarOff: Yimy Gamero

45'⇄Alexis CossioOff: Daniel Lino

45+1'Lautaro Guzmán

45+1'Matías Eric Sen

55'VARThiago Alessandro Salinas MelgarGoal cancelled

64'⇄Franco ZanelattoOff: Johnny Vidales

66'⇄Maximiliano PérezOff: Josuee Herrera

67'Agustín Rodríguez

70'⇄Matias ZegarraOff: Lautaro Guzmán

70'⇄Jean OlivaresOff: Agustín Rodríguez

77'⇄Marcos PortilloOff: Nicolas Quagliata

86'⚽Jose Antonio·ParodiAssist: Matías Eric Sen

Statistics

34%Possession66%

0.72Expected goals1.39

12Total shots21

4Shots on target8

6Corners4

11Fouls18

0Offsides1

1Yellow cards5

1Red cards0

7Saves3

FBC Melgar scored 2.2 and conceded 1.1 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Comerciantes Unidos scored 1.2 and conceded 2.0 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

FBC Melgar · last 10 at home: 6 wins6/10

Comerciantes Unidos · last 10 away: 7 defeats7/10

FBC Melgar: 10 games · Comerciantes Unidos: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.1Goals scored (avg)1.3

1.2Goals conceded (avg)1.9

3.3Total goals per gameleague 2.83.2

9/10Over 0.5league %9410/10

9/10Over 1.5league %758/10

6/10Over 2.5league %546/10

4/10Over 3.5league %345/10

3/10Over 4.5league %172/10

8/10Both scoreleague %597/10

2/10Clean sheets0/10

1/10Failed to score3/10

FBC Melgar: 10 games · Comerciantes Unidos: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.8Goals scored (avg)1.5

0.9Goals conceded (avg)1.7

2.7Total goals per gameleague 2.83.2

10/10Over 0.5league %9410/10

8/10Over 1.5league %758/10

5/10Over 2.5league %546/10

2/10Over 3.5league %345/10

1/10Over 4.5league %172/10

6/10Both scoreleague %598/10

3/10Clean sheets0/10

1/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%28 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), FBC Melgar win 194, 277 end level and Comerciantes Unidos win 530. The actual result comes up 277 times in 1000.

%19 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.

0.72 – 1.39 The score the chances deserved (xG): FBC Melgar 0.72 – 1.39 Comerciantes Unidos.

34 – 66 Possession (%): FBC Melgar 34 – 66 Comerciantes Unidos.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 11 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

FBC Melgar · Primera División

Comerciantes Unidos · Primera División

FBC Melgar · All games

Comerciantes Unidos · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at FBC Melgar's ground

Last 11 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match