AC Milan – Inter: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Serie A · Italy · Matchday 10

AC MilanSerie A · #5

3-1Saturday, October 31

InterSerie A · #1

Match events

AC MilanInter

4'⚽Christian PulisicAssist: Diego Moreira
10'⚽Adrien RabiotAssist: Diego Moreira
22'⚽Alessandro Bastoni
43'⚽Diego Moreira
49'Koni De Winter
52'Diego Moreira
72'⇄Piotr Zieliński

Chances to win

AC Milan%27

Draw%26

Inter%46

At a glance

Over 1.5

%56Over 2.5

%59Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%58Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%59

Inter win%46

Under 2.5%44

Not both score%41

AC Milan win%27

Draw%26

Why?

AC Milan: 3+ goals in 7 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

AC MilanL2-4W2-0L0-3W3-2W4-0

InterW2-0W2-1W1-0W3-1L3-4

Last 15 meetings

6AC Milan won

3Draw

6Inter won

2.7
Goals per game7/15
Over 2.58/15
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

AC Milan · last 10 at home2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Inter · last 10 away4/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

AC Milan · last 10 at home3.4 corners, 1.4 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners4/10Over 4.5 corners2/10Over 5.5 corners

Inter · last 10 away4.6 corners, 2.8 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/10Over 4.5 corners5/10Over 5.5 corners4/10Over 0.5 cards10/10Over 1.5 cards8/10

Bench

L. P. Bouyer, L. Torriani, P. Estupiñán, D. Bartesaghi, V. Vladimirov, F. Terracciano, C. Comotto, A. Jashari, L. Ossola, A. Cissè, O. Hutchinson, F. Camarda

Inter · 3-5-1-1

1Josep Martínez

25M. Akanji

31Y. Bisseck

95A. Bastoni

8P. Sučić

17A. Diouf

20H. Çalhanoğlu

23N. Barella

30Carlos Augusto

99D. Spence

9M. Thuram

Bench

R. Di Gennaro, A. Taho, F. Dimarco, L. Bovio, L. Jakirović, A. Stanković, P. Zieliński, H. Mkhitaryan, A. Bonny, M. Mosconi, M. Lavelli, F. Esposito

AC Milan – InterApril 2, 2025 · Coppa Italia1-1

AC Milan – InterFebruary 2, 2025 · Serie A1-1

Inter – AC MilanJanuary 6, 2025 · Super Cup2-3

Inter – AC MilanSeptember 22, 2024 · Serie A1-2

AC Milan – InterApril 22, 2024 · Serie A1-2

Inter – AC MilanSeptember 16, 2023 · Serie A5-1

Inter – AC MilanMay 16, 2023 · UEFA Champions League1-0

AC Milan – InterMay 10, 2023 · UEFA Champions League0-2

Inter – AC MilanFebruary 5, 2023 · Serie A1-0

AC Milan – InterJanuary 18, 2023 · Super Cup0-3

AC Milan – InterSeptember 3, 2022 · Serie A3-2

Off: Hakan Çalhanoğlu

72'⇄Henrikh MkhitaryanOff: Andy Diouf

75'VARHenrikh MkhitaryanPenalty cancelled

81'⇄Federico DimarcoOff: Alessandro Bastoni

82'⇄Pio EspositoOff: Nicolò Barella

82'⇄Ange-Yoan BonnyOff: Yann Bisseck

82'⇄Ardon JashariOff: Yunus Musah

82'⇄Alphadjo CissèOff: Christian Pulisic

83'⇄Davide BartesaghiOff: Sankhoun Diawara

89'⇄Filippo TerraccianoOff: Gonçalo Ramos

89'⇄Omari HutchinsonOff: Diego Moreira

Statistics

43%Possession57%

0.74Expected goals1.84

7Total shots19

4Shots on target8

3Corners11

8Fouls14

1Offsides4

2Yellow cards1

0Red cards0

7Saves1

Inter: 3+ goals in 7 of their last 10 away matches.

AC Milan scored 1.6 and conceded 1.8 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Inter scored 2.3 and conceded 1.3 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

AC Milan · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 7 times7/10

Inter · last 10 away: 3+ goals 7 times7/10

AC Milan: 10 games · Inter: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.6Goals scored (avg)2.0

1.7Goals conceded (avg)1.3

3.3Total goals per gameleague 3.23.3

9/10Over 0.5league %9810/10

9/10Over 1.5league %869/10

7/10Over 2.5league %607/10

4/10Over 3.5league %345/10

3/10Over 4.5league %211/10

5/10Both scoreleague %586/10

3/10Clean sheets4/10

3/10Failed to score0/10

AC Milan: 10 games · Inter: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.0Goals scored (avg)2.3

1.5Goals conceded (avg)1.6

3.5Total goals per gameleague 3.23.9

10/10Over 0.5league %9810/10

10/10Over 1.5league %869/10

7/10Over 2.5league %608/10

5/10Over 3.5league %345/10

2/10Over 4.5league %212/10

5/10Both scoreleague %587/10

3/10Clean sheets3/10

2/10Failed to score0/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%14 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), AC Milan win 144, 220 end level and Inter win 636. The actual result comes up 144 times in 1000.

0.74 – 1.84 The score the chances deserved (xG): AC Milan 0.74 – 1.84 Inter.

%28 Our model's pre-match chance of a AC Milan win.

7 – 19 Shots: AC Milan 7 – 19 Inter.

2 more numbers for this match in Premium

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 15 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

AC Milan · Serie A

Inter · Serie A

AC Milan · All games

Inter · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at AC Milan's ground

Last 15 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match