Exeter City – Fleetwood Town: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·League Two · England · Matchday 13

Exeter CityLeague Two · #8

2-1Saturday, October 24

Fleetwood TownLeague Two · #18

Match events

Exeter CityFleetwood Town

35'Taylor Perry
45'⇄Reece ColeOff: Taylor Perry
58'⚽Charlie CumminsAssist: Reece Cole
60'Jack Fitzwater
61'⚽Ronan CoughlanAssist: Crispin McLean
61'⇄Danny AndrewOff: Finley Potter

Chances to win

Exeter City%40

Draw%29

Fleetwood Town%31

At a glance

Over 1.5

%46Over 2.5

%52Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Under 2.5.

%54Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 5.Missed

Other scenarios

Both score%52

Not both score%48

Over 2.5%46

Exeter City win%40

Fleetwood Town win%31

Draw%29

Why?

Exeter City: 2 or fewer goals in 7 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

Exeter CityW2-0D0-0W1-0D2-2W1-0

Fleetwood TownL2-4W2-0D1-1W4-1L0-1

Last 8 meetings

3Exeter City won

4Draw

1Fleetwood Town won

2.8
Goals per game6/8
Over 2.55/8
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Exeter City · last 10 at home3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Fleetwood Town · last 10 away0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Exeter City · last 10 at home5.2 corners, 1.8 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners5/10Over 5.5 corners

Fleetwood Town · last 10 away4.1 corners, 2.8 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/10Over 4.5 corners4/10Over 5.5 corners2/10Over 0.5 cards10/10Over 1.5 cards9/10

Bench

J. Pradic, D. Andrew, R. Cirino, A. Murphy, J. Robertson, W. Davies, A. Loupalo-Bi

Exeter City – Fleetwood TownMarch 22, 2014 · League Two3-0

Fleetwood Town – Exeter CitySeptember 28, 2013 · League Two1-2

Fleetwood Town – Exeter CityMarch 9, 2013 · League Two0-0

Exeter City – Fleetwood TownNovember 10, 2012 · League Two2-2

R. CirinoOff: Ched Evans

63'⇄Ethan SutherlandOff: Anthony Scully

64'⚽L. WoodhouseAssist: George Birch

70'⇄Josh RobertsonOff: Crispin McLean

70'⇄Aaron Loupalo-BiOff: Lewis McCann

71'⇄Sonny CoxOff: Josh Gordon

78'⇄Liam OakesOff: Harry Kite

78'⇄Vincent HarperOff: George Birch

Statistics

47%Possession53%

1.26Expected goals0.9

12Total shots14

4Shots on target4

5Corners5

9Fouls11

2Offsides0

2Yellow cards0

0Red cards0

3Saves2

Fleetwood Town: 2 or fewer goals in 5 of their last 10 away matches.

Exeter City scored 1.4 and conceded 0.8 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Fleetwood Town scored 1.1 and conceded 1.6 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Exeter City · last 10 at home: 2 or fewer goals 7 times7/10

Fleetwood Town · last 10 away: 2 or fewer goals 5 times5/10

Exeter City: 10 games · Fleetwood Town: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.3Goals scored (avg)1.2

0.6Goals conceded (avg)1.7

1.9Total goals per gameleague 2.62.9

8/10Over 0.5league %9210/10

7/10Over 1.5league %767/10

3/10Over 2.5league %456/10

1/10Over 3.5league %304/10

0/10Over 4.5league %141/10

4/10Both scoreleague %567/10

6/10Clean sheets1/10

2/10Failed to score2/10

Exeter City: 10 games · Fleetwood Town: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.1Goals scored (avg)1.5

0.8Goals conceded (avg)1.4

1.9Total goals per gameleague 2.62.9

8/10Over 0.5league %9210/10

5/10Over 1.5league %768/10

4/10Over 2.5league %455/10

2/10Over 3.5league %303/10

0/10Over 4.5league %142/10

4/10Both scoreleague %567/10

5/10Clean sheets1/10

3/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%44 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Exeter City win 444, 288 end level and Fleetwood Town win 268. The actual result comes up 444 times in 1000.

1.26 – 0.91 The score the chances deserved (xG): Exeter City 1.26 – 0.91 Fleetwood Town.

7.7

Man of the match: R. Coughlan (Fleetwood Town), rated 7.7.

%40 Our model's pre-match chance of a Exeter City win.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 8 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Exeter City · League Two

Fleetwood Town · League Two

Exeter City · All games

Fleetwood Town · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Exeter City's ground

Last 8 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match