The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.
%69Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 7.Missed
Other scenarios
Both score%64
1899 Hoffenheim win%62
Not both score%36
Under 2.5%31
Draw%21
Holstein Kiel win%18
Why?
Holstein Kiel: 3+ goals in 6 of their last 10 home matches.
Last 5 matches
Holstein KielW3-0D0-0L0-1D1-1L0-1
1899 HoffenheimW3-0W3-0W2-1L2-3L2-3
Last 4 meetings
0Holstein Kiel won
0Draw
41899 Hoffenheim won
4.8 Goals per game4/4 Over 2.54/4 Both score
Handicap and HT/FT history
By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.
Holstein Kiel · last 10 at home3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 4 games it led at half-time.
1899 Hoffenheim · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).6/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 4 of the 5 games it led at half-time.
Corners and cards
Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.
Holstein Kiel · last 10 at home6.8 corners, 3.2 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners9/10Over 4.5 corners8/10Over 5.5 corners5/10
Referee
Bastian Dankert3.2 cards a match in 20 recorded games
Premium members onlyLikely scores, likely scorers, corner, card and half chances.
Holstein Kiel · All games
2W 5D 3LScored 12 · conceded 112.5 Üst 4/10KG 4/10
1899 Hoffenheim · All games
4W 0D 6LScored 19 · conceded 192.5 Üst 9/10KG 7/10
Missing players
No absentees reported
Starting line-ups
Holstein Kiel · 4-1-4-1
5N. Madsen
13I. Nekić
32H. Sekine
40Leon Parduzi
10J. Therkelsen
15K. Davidsen
20A. Kaprálik
27I. Ugoh
28J. Meffert
19P. Harres
Bench
T. Weiner, D. Zec, J. Tolkin, G. Balzi, T. Wiese, G. Kvilitaia, G. de Regt, F. Alidou, Mark Richter Monserrat
Holstein Kiel · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 6 times6/10
1899 Hoffenheim · last 10 away: 3+ goals 9 times9/10
Holstein Kiel: 10 games · 1899 Hoffenheim: 10 games · league average in grey
Goals
1.5Goals scored (avg)1.4
0.9Goals conceded (avg)2.2
2.4Total goals per gameleague 4.13.6
8/10Over 0.5league %9810/10
8/10Over 1.5league %9610/10
5/10Over 2.5league %718/10
3/10Over 3.5league %566/10
0/10Over 4.5league %382/10
5/10Both scoreleague %506/10
5/10Clean sheets1/10
2/10Failed to score3/10
Holstein Kiel: 10 games · 1899 Hoffenheim: 10 games · league average in grey
Goals
1.1Goals scored (avg)1.8
1.0Goals conceded (avg)1.7
2.1Total goals per gameleague 4.13.5
9/10Over 0.5league %9810/10
7/10Over 1.5league %9610/10
3/10Over 2.5league %718/10
2/10Over 3.5league %564/10
0/10Over 4.5league %383/10
4/10Both scoreleague %507/10
3/10Clean sheets2/10
4/10Failed to score1/10
The real story of the match
What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.
%31 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Holstein Kiel win 412, 308 end level and 1899 Hoffenheim win 280. The actual result comes up 308 times in 1000.
%21 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.
1.11 – 0.86 The score the chances deserved (xG): Holstein Kiel 1.11 – 0.86 1899 Hoffenheim.
7.5 Man of the match: A. Hložek (1899 Hoffenheim), rated 7.5.
Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga · #14
1899 HoffenheimBundesliga · #10