Emelec – Leones del Norte: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Liga Pro · Ecuador · Placement Group - 5

EmelecLiga Pro: Regular season · #10

0-2Saturday, October 31

Leones del NorteLiga Pro: Regular season · #8

Match events

EmelecLeones del Norte

34'Orlando Herrera
39'Aníbal Leguizamón
41'⇄Luis GómezOff: Orlando Herrera
44'⚽M. LuqueAssist: T. Coppo
45'⇄Teodoro ArceOff: Juan Pablo·Ruiz Gomez
45'⇄Andrés Antonio Viteri Febres CorderoOff: Angelo Mina

Chances to win

Emelec%49

Draw%27

Leones del Norte%24

At a glance

Over 1.5

%47Over 2.5

%50Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Under 2.5.

%53Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 5.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Not both score%50

Both score%50

Emelec win%49

Over 2.5%47

Draw%27

Leones del Norte win%24

Why?

Emelec: 2 or fewer goals in 7 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

EmelecL0-1W3-1L2-3L1-2L0-1

Leones del NorteW4-1L1-3L0-3D1-1L0-1

Last 4 meetings

2Emelec won

1Draw

1Leones del Norte won

2.3
Goals per game2/4
Over 2.52/4
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Emelec · last 10 at home1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Leones del Norte · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Emelec · last 8 at home5.8 corners, 1.9 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners8/8Over 4.5 corners5/8Over 5.5 corners3/8Over 0.5 cards

Leones del Norte · last 9 away4.6 corners, 2.0 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/9Over 4.5 corners4/9Over 5.5 corners3/9Over 0.5 cards8/9Over 1.5 cards7/9

40Juan Luis Anangonó León

Bench

J. Arroyo, A. Rosales, M. de la Cruz, B. Kreiman, A. Aguas, Miguel Yordan Caicedo Orobio, C. Velez, O. Pepinos, T. Amilivia

67'⇄A AguasOff: Martín Caramuto

68'⇄Ronie CarrilloOff: Jose Francisco Cevallos

79'⇄Maiky de la CruzOff: Segundo Portocarrero

80'⇄Charles VelezOff: Emiliano Griffa

86'⚽M. LuqueAssist: Maiky de la Cruz

90'⇄Thomas AmiliviaOff: T. Coppo

90+1'⇄Brian Gastón KreimanOff: Cristhian Solano

Statistics

58%Possession42%

1.08Expected goals1.11

14Total shots17

2Shots on target4

3Corners5

21Fouls16

0Offsides1

4Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

2Saves2

Leones del Norte: 2 or fewer goals in 5 of their last 10 away matches.

Emelec scored 1.0 and conceded 0.8 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Leones del Norte scored 1.0 and conceded 1.7 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Emelec · last 10 at home: 2 or fewer goals 7 times7/10

Leones del Norte · last 10 away: 2 or fewer goals 5 times5/10

Emelec: 10 games · Leones del Norte: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

0.8Goals scored (avg)0.9

1.0Goals conceded (avg)1.6

1.8Total goals per gameleague 2.32.5

9/10Over 0.5league %9210/10

6/10Over 1.5league %668/10

3/10Over 2.5league %424/10

0/10Over 3.5league %191/10

0/10Over 4.5league %101/10

4/10Both scoreleague %483/10

3/10Clean sheets4/10

4/10Failed to score3/10

Emelec: 10 games · Leones del Norte: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.0Goals scored (avg)1.3

1.4Goals conceded (avg)1.5

2.4Total goals per gameleague 2.32.8

10/10Over 0.5league %9210/10

7/10Over 1.5league %668/10

4/10Over 2.5league %425/10

2/10Over 3.5league %193/10

1/10Over 4.5league %102/10

5/10Both scoreleague %486/10

1/10Clean sheets2/10

4/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%36 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Emelec win 346, 292 end level and Leones del Norte win 362. The actual result comes up 362 times in 1000.

%24 Our model's pre-match chance of an Leones del Norte win.

1.08 – 1.11 The score the chances deserved (xG): Emelec 1.08 – 1.11 Leones del Norte.

8.5

Man of the match: M. Luque (Leones del Norte), rated 8.5.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 4 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Emelec · Liga Pro

Leones del Norte · Liga Pro

Emelec · All games

Leones del Norte · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

Last 4 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match