Sunderland – Brentford: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·League Cup · England · Round of 16

SunderlandPremier League · #20

3-2Wednesday, October 28

BrentfordPremier League · #6

Match events

SunderlandBrentford

26'⚽Chemsdine Talbi
29'⚽Timur TutierovAssist: Djiamgone Jocelin Ta Bi
39'⚽Malick FofanaAssist: Djiamgone Jocelin Ta Bi
42'⚽Callum WilsonAssist: Vitaly Janelt
45'⇄Chris RiggOff: Habib Diarra
59'⇄Dango OuattaraOff: Callum Wilson

Chances to win

Sunderland%22

Draw%24

Brentford%53

At a glance

Over 1.5

%56Over 2.5

%57Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%56Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%57

Brentford win%53

Under 2.5%44

Not both score%43

Draw%24

Sunderland win%22

Why?

Sunderland: 3+ goals in 2 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

SunderlandD0-0D1-1L0-2W2-1L0-2

BrentfordD1-1L1-2D2-2W3-0W2-1

Last 5 meetings

1Sunderland won

2Draw

2Brentford won

3.2
Goals per game3/5
Over 2.53/5
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Sunderland · last 10 at home0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 1 games it led at half-time.

Brentford · last 10 away1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Sunderland · last 10 at home5.4 corners, 2.2 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners5/10Over 5.5 corners

Brentford · last 10 away4.2 corners, 2.1 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/10Over 4.5 corners5/10Over 5.5 corners5/10Over 0.5 cards8/10Over 1.5 cards5/10

Bench

C. Kelleher, A. Hickey, S. van den Berg, K. Ajer, K. Schade, M. Jensen, D. Ouattara, K. Lewis-Potter, Gustavo Gomes

Brentford – SunderlandOctober 21, 2017 · Championship3-3

Aaron HickeyOff: Michael Kayode

59'⇄Mathias JensenOff: Mamadou Sangare

60'⇄Thomas MeunierOff: Timur Tutierov

60'⇄Luke O'NienOff: Omar Alderete

71'⇄Kevin SchadeOff: Jaidon Anthony

71'⇄Kristoffer AjerOff: Nathan Collins

80'⇄Tom ProctorOff: Chemsdine Talbi

90+4'⚽Igor ThiagoAssist: Mathias Jensen

90+4'⇄F. ScottOff: Djiamgone Jocelin Ta Bi

Statistics

33%Possession67%

2.41Expected goals2.77

7Total shots16

4Shots on target7

0Corners5

8Fouls18

0Offsides3

1Yellow cards3

0Red cards0

4Saves0

Brentford: 3+ goals in 6 of their last 10 away matches.

Sunderland scored 0.6 and conceded 1.0 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Brentford scored 1.6 and conceded 1.4 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Brentford · last 10 away: 3+ goals 6 times6/10

Sunderland: 10 games · Brentford: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

0.8Goals scored (avg)1.8

1.2Goals conceded (avg)1.7

2.0Total goals per gameleague 3.13.5

8/10Over 0.5league %9810/10

5/10Over 1.5league %8110/10

3/10Over 2.5league %567/10

2/10Over 3.5league %384/10

2/10Over 4.5league %212/10

2/10Both scoreleague %569/10

5/10Clean sheets0/10

5/10Failed to score1/10

Sunderland: 10 games · Brentford: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.1Goals scored (avg)1.7

1.8Goals conceded (avg)1.3

2.9Total goals per gameleague 3.13.0

9/10Over 0.5league %9810/10

8/10Over 1.5league %8110/10

4/10Over 2.5league %566/10

3/10Over 3.5league %383/10

2/10Over 4.5league %211/10

5/10Both scoreleague %568/10

2/10Clean sheets2/10

4/10Failed to score0/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%35 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Sunderland win 350, 178 end level and Brentford win 472. The actual result comes up 350 times in 1000.

%22 Our model's pre-match chance of a Sunderland win.

7 – 16 Shots: Sunderland 7 – 16 Brentford.

0 – 5 Corners: Sunderland 0 – 5 Brentford.

3 more numbers for this match in Premium

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 5 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Sunderland · All games

Brentford · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Sunderland's ground

Last 5 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match