Ponte Preta – Fortaleza EC: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Serie B · Brazil · Matchday 35

Ponte PretaSerie B · #20

2-2Sunday, October 25

Fortaleza ECSerie B · #5

Match events

Ponte PretaFortaleza EC

11'Gustavo Telles
22'VARChico da CostaPenalty confirmed
24'Danilo Barcelos
25'⚽MaíltonPenalty
32'Maílton
44'⚽Gustavo Felipe AlmeidaAssist: Danilo Barcelos
45+2'

Chances to win

Ponte Preta%9

Draw%18

Fortaleza EC%73

At a glance

Over 1.5

%54Over 2.5

%41Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Fortaleza EC win.

%73Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 7.Missed

Other scenarios

Not both score%59

Over 2.5%54

Under 2.5%46

Both score%41

Draw%18

Ponte Preta win%9

Why?

Fortaleza EC won 5 of their last 10 away matches.

Last 5 matches

Ponte PretaD1-1L1-5L0-2L0-2L0-2

Fortaleza ECW2-0D2-2W1-0D1-1D2-2

Last 3 meetings

1Ponte Preta won

1Draw

1Fortaleza EC won

2.0
Goals per game0/3
Over 2.51/3
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Ponte Preta · last 10 at home0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).6/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Fortaleza EC · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 5 of the 5 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Ponte Preta · last 10 at home3.3 corners, 3.1 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/10Over 4.5 corners3/10Over 5.5 corners

Fortaleza EC · last 10 away4.5 corners, 2.5 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/10Over 4.5 corners3/10Over 5.5 corners2/10Over 0.5 cards10/10Over 1.5 cards7/10

91Francisco da Costa

Bench

Vinícius Silvestre, Lucas Gazal, Luan, Kaio Henrique, Paulinho, Rodrigo, Ryan Gustavo, Lucca, Nathan Fogaça, Lucas Emanoel, Welliton, Paulo Baya

Guilherme Brandão AzevedoAssist: Gustavo Telles

45+4'Felipe Di Mauro

57'⇄Paulo BayaOff: Vitor Ferreira

57'⇄Welliton Silva de Azevedo MatheusOff: Pedro Henrique

60'⇄DenisOff: Rodrigo Souza

65'⚽Rodrigo Henrique Santos De SouzaAssist: Paulo Baya

65'⇄Lucca Prior PimentaOff: Maurício Mucuri

72'⇄LUCAS CUNHAOff: Danilo

72'⇄Emanuell Silva FerreiraOff: David da Hora

72'⇄Juan Rodrigues LeopoldinoOff: Karl Cachoeira Della Vedova Júnior

76'Vinicius Ferrari Andreoli

86'⇄Nathan FogaçaOff: ronald falkoski

90+1'⇄Diego Monteiro LeaoOff: Gustavo Telles

Statistics

24%Possession76%

0.89Expected goals1.94

14Total shots23

6Shots on target8

4Corners9

10Fouls13

0Offsides1

4Yellow cards1

0Red cards0

6Saves4

Ponte Preta scored 0.6 and conceded 1.5 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Fortaleza EC scored 1.0 and conceded 0.8 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Ponte Preta · last 10 at home: 6 defeats6/10

Fortaleza EC · last 10 away: 5 wins5/10

Ponte Preta: 10 games · Fortaleza EC: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

0.8Goals scored (avg)1.2

1.5Goals conceded (avg)0.9

2.3Total goals per gameleague 2.32.1

10/10Over 0.5league %929/10

9/10Over 1.5league %697/10

3/10Over 2.5league %434/10

1/10Over 3.5league %181/10

0/10Over 4.5league %70/10

6/10Both scoreleague %464/10

1/10Clean sheets5/10

3/10Failed to score2/10

Ponte Preta: 10 games · Fortaleza EC: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

0.5Goals scored (avg)1.5

2.4Goals conceded (avg)0.9

2.9Total goals per gameleague 2.32.4

10/10Over 0.5league %9210/10

9/10Over 1.5league %697/10

3/10Over 2.5league %434/10

3/10Over 3.5league %183/10

2/10Over 4.5league %70/10

3/10Both scoreleague %466/10

1/10Clean sheets4/10

6/10Failed to score0/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%21 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Ponte Preta win 166, 214 end level and Fortaleza EC win 620. The actual result comes up 214 times in 1000.

%18 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.

0.89 – 1.94 The score the chances deserved (xG): Ponte Preta 0.89 – 1.94 Fortaleza EC.

4 – 9 Corners: Ponte Preta 4 – 9 Fortaleza EC.

2 more numbers for this match in Premium

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 3 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Ponte Preta · Serie B

Fortaleza EC · Serie B

Ponte Preta · All games

Fortaleza EC · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

Last 3 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match